MIL-DTL-23659F
APPENDIX A
The solid straight line in the center gives the best guess for the probability of functioning at the
given voltage. Also shown is the 95% upper side confidence curve for this data. To interpret the
confidence curves a horizontal line at the 99% probability level intersects the most likely and
95% upper confidence curves at approximately 1290 and 1375 volts respectively. Thus, 1375
volts is the 95% upper confidence limit for 99% probability of fire for this fireset and initiator.
A.7.6.9.4. Safety and Confidence Levels. Figure A-5 shows an example of a typical
probability curve that may be obtained from analysis of sensitivity test data being used to predict
safety. The y-axis is plotted using probability scaling. The solid straight line in the center gives
the best guess for the probability of functioning at the given voltage. Also shown is the 95%
lower side confidence curve for this data, the worst case from a safety viewpoint. To interpret
the confidence curves a horizontal line at the .000001 probability of fire level intersects the most
likely and 95% lower confidence curves at approximately 560 and 810 volts respectively. For
safety analysis the 560 volt level represents the greatest hazard, with 500 volts representing the
no-fire voltage where less than 1 in 1,000,000 units will respond.
0.999
Confidence
Best guess
0.950
0.99
0.9
0.5
0.1
0.01
0.001
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
Stimulus (V)
FIGURE A-4. Reliability Confidence Estimate
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